MAJOR WAGER
SUPER BOWL WINNER #3 IN A ROW
Now on a 10-2 run with
Super Bowl Sides and Totals since 2005
80-Dime Super Bowl Winner
Saints OUTRIGHT versus the Colts
Here is what I had to say about the big game:
80 DIME SAINTS - If I hear, one more time, "how do you go against Peyton Manning ..." I just might punch that person dead in his face.
I
realize the second half of the regular-season clash with the Jets and
the game in Buffalo aren't good enough gauges to say "That's how you go
against Peyton Manning," so the one thing I can say about this
proverbial 5-point spread, is this is the Super Bowl. This is the game
in which everyone anticipated and this is the one clash that is far
better than the blowout win all the blowhards playing the Colts.
Yes,
Manning is excellent against a blitzing scheme and has a quick trigger
with plenty of weapons, but New Orleans has a mastermind named Gregg
Williams heading up the defense; and something tells me he is going to
be awfully cautious about pressuring Manning, allowing him to fire what
would be broken-free receivers downfield.
We
watched the Jags lose by 2 and 4, there was the 4-point win in Miami,
the three straight home wins by a total of eight points - five against
the Niners, three against the Texans and one against New England. And
let's not forget about the two-point win at Baltimore.
That's
seven wins noted right there, all by an average margin of less than a
field goal. And here's the thing, you know the one thing none of those
teams can boast like New Orleans - not even the Patriots ... it's called
an offense.
The
best offense the Colts faced during the regular season was the
Patriots, who were ranked third in the league this past season, just
behind the Saints and the Cowboys. From there, in the Top ranked
offenses, the Colts have faced Houston (4th) - that's it.
And,
yes, while the Texans by a combined final of 55-44 in both games (an
average margin of 5.5 points), the Pats lost by one and arguably
should've won that game.
I
give all the props to Manning - he is undoubtedly the best there is,
until someone else outduels (could it be Drew Brees), but the defense
that everyone says is better than critics claim has yet to face an
offense that averaged 31.9 points per game and more than 400 yards.
This
Colts defense everyone thinks is so great wasn't that much better than
the Saints'. Ranked 18th in the league, the Colts were 14th against the
pass and even worse, 24th against the run.
This
is a big deal, because the Saints have the personnel to use the rushing
game to set up the play action, and give Brees the opportunities he
will need to keep this game close.
He's spot-on with his vertical game.
He's precise with his passes.
He can use the screen pass, or quick over-the-middle passes to his tight end. Quite frankly, he's just as talented as Manning.
And
though Manning made it one step further the year the Saints made it to
the Conference Championship, and won the whole thing, the Saints are
still a veteran-laden team that isn't going to lay down.
I'm
banking on a big game from Reggie Bush, who can do so many things to
put his team in a position to score, be it on special teams, catching
tosses in the flat, running the ball ... he's the key, not Brees.
And I think he's ready to break out.
The
Colts think the Saints are going to bring everyone off the line, but I
am guessing they're not going to bring a lot of pressure ... that's why
their pass defense ranked so low - cause they'd didn't necessarily bring
the heat.
That means there will be plenty of personnel in the secondary to keep an eye on Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne.
Trust
me, the Saints' lethargic Pass Defense numbers are because they didn't
care about getting into shootouts. Not when they knew they could
outshoot the other team. They still had decent games in which they held
teams to minimal amounts ... comparable to Indianapolis.
The Saints allowed 21.3 points per game; the Colts allowed 19.2. That's a difference of 2.1 ... or, a safety.
New
Orleans held the Eagles, Jets, Panthers, Patriots and Cardinals - five
teams that put some points up this year - to an average of 16.6 points
per game.
In fact, in their game against the Patriots, they held Tom Brady and company to 17 points, and won 38-17 in a statement game.
Again, the Colts barely won their meeting with New England.
Give Gregg Williams time to prepare, he will get the job done. His defense will be effective.
Can the Saints win? Sure, why not. Will they? I don't know about that ...
Manning
is still Manning and he is dangerous. But I do know the winner is the
team with the ball last. And I see one of these two winning the game by
four points.
The oddsmakers made the original line 4 points ... hmmmmm.
Could be on to something, right?
Let's
grab the line at 5, and in the event - for some strange, oddball reason
- this line goes as low as 4 points, you are to buy a half point up and
take the 4-1/2. I don't think it happens, but just in case ...
Take the underdog in the Super Bowl this year.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
And let's not forget about the Pay-After-I-Win Total!!!
10-Dime UNDER Saints/Colts
- Everyone I've spoken with has this game landing in the 70's. Out of
the mouths of one of my favorite comedians, John Pinette: "I say nay
nay."
There
are only one way to win this game, be it New Orleans or be it
Indianapolis and that is to play a ball-controlled game and to keep the
ball out of the other team's hands.
After
all, do you really think either team wants to get into a shootout with
the other. Peyton Manning is good, but he knows how good Drew Brees and
his weapons are.
Vice versa, Brees knows exactly how good Manning is, and that he and Reggie Wayne have already been to the Super Bowl.
So what will they do? Run, run and more run.
Sure,
the vertical games will come into play at some point, but neither
Manning nor Brees want the other guy on the field. They want
long-sustained drives that end up in the end zone. Problem is, for as
long as the offenses are on the field, that's how rested their defenses
will be once they get out there, so there could be some stalwart efforts
that force the field-goal units on the field multiple times.
I know the over is very attractive, but I don't think these two will get past the 52-point plateau.
Take this one Under, and if you want the winner, don't forget to get my 80-Dime Winner.